I’m not sure it would prevent a nuclear attack, but might serve as some sort of deterrent. In any case, in this scenario (which we will hopefully not need to witness) it’s not like Israel can simply sit back and hope nothing will happen. There are times in which action must be taken even if it is not certain how effective it will be…

However, it’s always interesting to look at it from the other perspective; however, as with the Soviet Union, there may be a balancing act. If Iran potentially acquires nukes and constantly threatens to use them, Israel could threaten to use its nukes in retaliation. Additionally, as long as America’s interests lie in having Israel as a whole state, America will also nuke Iran in retaliation, creating a balance.

Granted, it’s not an easy balance to have, but it’s the one that kept the USSR and the US from ever nuking each other back in the day, as my political science professor explained to me.

If Iran is in possession of nuclear weapons, it could put the whole region on high alert whenever it wants – costing Israel’s economy millions and billions, destroying Israel, in effect. Tourism would collapse, and the cost of calling up reserves all the time would be very high (reserve soldiers are much more expensive than regular ones) for the state, as well for the economy, of which huge sectors will have to be shut down, as in time of war.

By the way, unfortunately I did not come up with this on my own, and since האומר דבר בשם אומרו מביא גאולה לעולם (he who says something in the name of he who said it bring redemption to the world) I have to say I heard Michael Oren explain this additional aspect to the Iranian threat.

Best thing that proves this? The podcast at EconTalk:
bit.ly/7YiCA

A summary:

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita of Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and New York University talks to EconTalk host Russ Roberts about threats to U.S. security, particularly Iran. Bueno de Mesquita argues that Iran is of little danger to the United States and that Ahmadinejad is an unimportant player in Iran’s political system, more of a stalking horse for provocative ideas rather than a wielder of power.

Bueno de Mesquita then looks at what Iran has to gain and to lose by appearing to build a nuclear weapons program and actually using a nuclear weapon. He then goes on to examine the nature of other threats to the United States.