We’ll know if I’m wrong soon enough. My prediction is that all these bluffs will play well in the US and poorly in Israel. They will probably get further concessions out of the Americans…and therefore from the Israelis.

It’s all one big game, however, and that’s the long term prediction here: they will keep things just at a simmer (turning up the heat when needed as they’re doing now) for as long as possible.

Did you happen to miss the part where Israel offered the Palestinians a state over 94% and then 97% of the West Bank/Judea and Samaria, along with 100% of Gaza. That was rejected by the Palestinians and their rejection was accompanied by a war.

And last year, as recently as 2008, Ehud Olmert offered Abbas a peace deal based on Taba and the Clinton Parameters and even added an internationalized Jerusalem. Abbas said “no.” No real excuse given, either. These deals offered by two different Israeli governments with two different leaders were committed to removing settlers from 97% of Judea and Samaria/West Bank. They were committed to replacing the other 3% with a 1:1 land exchange for land inside the Green Line.

Settlements are a problem? Sure they are. Are they a solvable problem? Sure they are. Is there any reason to blame the problem on them? No. Because the Palestinians could have a state that encompasses 97% of the land upon which these settlements sit. No Bantustans, just a contiguous Palestine.

My precious Israel has offered peace, a Palestinian state and a bright future for the region. All the Palestinians need to do now is say, “Hmmm, a Jewish state next to us? Sure.”

It’s Israel and its actions that have sunk the two-state solution, not anything the Palestinians have done. The Palestinians at this point just don’t want Apartheid, which is what a two-state solution would be at this point, creating a bantustan under Israeli domination. I think that this is not an unfair desire.

Blame your precious Israel for blowing the two-state solution. It’s their fault and it’s about time that they suffer the consequences for their actions. I know, such a thing is blasphemy, but there I said it.

Obama’s administration will not buy it and will not give in to this trial balloon. Clinton – the former President Clinton – was there in person when the Israelis offered his plan to the Palestinians and were refused. He knows what is on the line here and there is no way that a White House with a Clinton in it, even if not in the Oval Office, will think for a minute that this is a line that can be crossed with Israel.

There is no way that a President with Rahm as an adviser could be ignorant about the implications of modifying 242 or giving the Palestinians unilateral reign over the Jewish Quarter and the Temple Mount.

My analysis is spot on. It’s a bluff. Why you, of all people, can’t see this with your constant mantra about seeking the best position for negotiations and that this is what Abbas has been doing all along, is beyond me.

As for giving advice to Israel or the US, since what I’m giving is free they can accept it for what it’s worth. If I were advising the US on anything, it would be to listen to Paul Krugman.

Hopeychange is here, Middle.

Looks like you’ve quickly been proven wrong about Palestinian disdain for negotiations and a two-state solution. (Don’t say I didn’t warn you.) I’ll bet that if Fayyad builds and declares his state, Hamas will oppose such a declaration vociferously– and with good reason. It will undermine a one-state solution.

In the end he will quietly slink back into the election and use his almost certain victory to put the squeeze on Hamas. I’m sure he cares more about minimizing them as a threat than anything the Israelis will or will not bring to the negotiating table in the near future.