President Barak Obama, prior to being elected, stated, at the 2008 AIPAC Conference, “Jerusalem will remain the capitol of Israel, and it must remain undivided.” (Watch his full speech here. This statement occurs at 18:58). So, if Jerusalem is the undivided capitol of Israel, how is building in the eastern half of the city any different than building in the western half? Its all part of the same undivided capitol, is it not?. Yet, the Obama administration has been all in an uproar regarding Israel’s announcement of its approval of the building of 1,600 housing units in Ramat Shlomo, a neighborhood in east Jerusalem. Recent comments by the Obama administration have been called “especially troubling” by the ADL and “very worrying” by AIPAC. So what is it? Did Obama mean that Jerusalem is, and ought to be, the undivided capitol of Israel, or not? Or was he merely pandering for the “Jewish [and Zionist] vote?”

In that same speech (at 25:11), Obama, also, said, “I will do everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon – everything in my power to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Everything.” Did he mean that, as well? Or does be plan on “flip-flopping” on that as well? Only time will tell. But, let us hope that, on this, the Obama administration does not intend to have a change of heart.

We all knew that Biden had a serious life-long case of foot-mouth disease. The man cannot help but make guffaws. But this trip to Israel was to be a make nice party, a chance for the US and Israel to rekindle their strong friendship and worry about BIG PROBLEMS like Iran.

Israel announced on the eve of his visit that it was halting the project that was causing so much fuss in East Jerusalem – Sheik Jarrah hood. (Remember that fake Purim video purporting to be Jews celebrating with songs in praise of Baruch Goldstein?)

UPDATE – Apparently the remarks were in response to 1600 homes in Ramat Shlomo, Wiki writes :Ramat Shlomo was founded in 1995. As of 2000, it had a population of 18,000, mostly Haredi Jews. Ramat Shlomo borders Ramot to the west, Har Hotzvim to the south, and Shuafat to the east.

Apparently, that is the “provocation” that was needed for Biden to dump a ton of rotten shwarma on Israel.

Leave it to Joe. This from the JTA:

Biden says Israeli housing starts ‘undermining’ trust

WASHINGTON (JTA) — Vice President Joe Biden denounced a decision to authorize new Jerusalem housing starts as “undermining the trust” that he needs to advance peace while in Israel.

“I condemn the decision by the government of Israel to advance planning for new housing units in East Jerusalem,” Biden said in a statement issued Tuesday, the second day of a visit that had been aimed at underscoring the closeness of the U.S.-Israel relationship. “The substance and timing of the announcement, particularly with the launching of proximity talks, is precisely the kind of step that undermines the trust we need right now and runs counter to the constructive discussions that I’ve had here in Israel.”

Robinson's Arch at the Temple Mount

Photo by Beggs on Flickr

Shabbat Shalom!!

Last night, Salam Fayyad, Prime Minister of the Palestinian National Authority, spoke at the Herzliya Conference about the need for Palestinian statehood and the current situation with peace negotiations.

Fayyad stated that Oslo recognized Israel’s right to exist in peace and security. However, he argued that the problem with Oslo was that Israel did not recognize Palestine’s right to exist, and that Israel still doesn’t. Oslo “suggested” Palestinian statehood, but was not seen as a necessary outcome. In 2002, U.S. President Bush made Palestinian statehood a matter of international consensus. The “rough neighborhood” that is the Middle East, as Israeli Minister of Defense Ehud Barak put it, would become less rough if, according to Fayad, the “international consensus” became “facts on the ground.” He stated that a Palestinian state must be established based on “justice,” “peace,” “stability,” “fairness,” and “security.”
Here, Fayad seems to miss a major point. “Justice” does not necessarily mean “fairness.” That which is just may not be fair. Therefore, it would appear that Fayyad and his friends must determine whether they are looking for a “just” solution, or a “fair” solution.

Fayyad explained that, under the Road Map, Palestinians must increase their ability to govern, which includes a security force. Security, he explained, as of mid-2007, is important to Palestinians, as well. Israel, he said, must be willing to “unequivocally” accept a two-state solution. That, he explained, called for a settlement-freeze. Israel must, “stop military incursions into our [Palestinian] territory.” “Occupation,” he said, “is being brought back on its way to end.” Palestinians are “sensitive to Israeli security needs,” but “incursions must completely stop.” Today, he argued, the situation is “at an impasse,” and that “occupation” is at the heart of the impasse. Further, he stated, Palestinian police must have “security forces present in population centers outside of Area A.” This, he explained, would bring hope to the Palestinians.
Yet, while referring to the Road Map, drafted by the United States, he, also, stated that peace would only be achieved through the Arab Peace Initiative. Seems kind of contradictory, doesn’t it?

Fayyad, also, brought up the topic of Jerusalem. East Jerusalem, he argued, is Palestinian territory occupied in 1967. Fayyad loudly stated that it is, “historical fact that East Jerusalem is an integral part of Palestine occupied in 1967.” Palestinians are willing to have a state on “22% of historic Palestine,” which, he claimed, was “agreed to in 1988” by the PLO.

This, clearly, is based upon fiction. I am not arguing that the Palestinians shouldn’t have their own state; to the contrary. However, it is purely fiction to claim that there was a “historic Palestinian state” or that Israel conquered Palestinian territory in 1967. The West Bank (Judea and Sumeria), including East Jerusalem, was, from 1948 to 1967, controlled by Jordan, and the Gaza Strip was controlled by Egypt. Previously, the land was controlled by the British, who took it over from the Ottomans. Let’s get our facts strait; Jerusalem is not now, nor was it ever, an “integral part of Palestine.” Whether the political powers that be ought to decide to make East Jerusalem the capitol of Palestine is not within the scope of this article. Yet, the clear changing of facts being iterated by Fayyad and the Palestinian Authority for years, here, I felt must be addressed.

Discussing settlement building, Fayyad explained the political dimension of protest to settlement building. If Israel cannot refrain from that, “how confidant can we all [Palestinians] be that” Israel would be willing to deliver on the final status issues?

Though to that, Israel might respond, if the Palestinian Authority cannot keep their people from attempting attacks on Israel in the interim period, how can we [Israel] be confident that the Palestinian government, when a state is established, will be capable or willing to do so?

According to Fayyad, the goal is to establish a sovereign Palestinian state by mid-2011, preceded by a full Israeli withdrawal by the end of 2010. Fayad proudly remarked that over 100 completed development programs have been implemented, and they are “ready for the next batch.” He expressed that a combination of “bottom-up” and “top-down” processes are needed.

Last, he turned to Gaza. There are many problems with Gaza, he said. Mentioning two, he stated that first, Palestinians have a constitutional right to national elections, which are being prevented by forces in Gaza. Second, referring to the Israeli blockade, he said that “siege must be lifted” to allow for accomplishments in Gaza to be made.

Interestingly, the fact the PA doesn’t control Gaza, and that Hamas is on the rise in the West Bank, as well, was not mentioned at all, throughout his 30-something minute speech.

Fayyad was warmly received and even received one or two standing ovations. Reaction from those attending the conference seem to fall into camps. Some greatly enjoyed Fayyad’s speech and found it to be “right on the mark.” Others, however, were greatly dismayed by the “flagrant propaganda spewed” throughout the speech.

The boxing match continues and Israel is about to get bloodied.

As I’ve written in the past few weeks, the Palestinians believe the timing is propitious for them to pursue their endgame. I believe they think their endgame – the knock-out punch that will bring about the final part of this century-old conflict and finally give them control over the Jews and the former Ottoman Palestine – is what happens when a single state, run by an Arab majority, exists from the Sea to the River (I would argue they believe they would next lay claim to Jordan, but that’s fodder for another discussion).

To achieve this goal, the Palestinians must keep Israel off-balance while continuing to jab and throw the occasional left hook or two. Their jabs and punches take many forms: terrorism (not just blowing up buses, restaurants and hotels, but also rockets launched at civilians), diplomatic warfare, propaganda that vilifies Jews and Israel, strong media relations that consistently depict Israel’s actions as that of an evil ogre (especially if they are security based), international and domestic law-fare and pressure upon Israel’s allies which is supported and strengthened by the Arab and Muslim entourage blocs who sit in the Palestinian’s corner profiting from the Palestinian’s black eyes and bloody nose while watching from the sidelines.

This fighter, the Palestinian nation, has shown moments of brutal aggression in previous rounds, showing that it indeed belongs in the ring and doesn’t need proxies fighting its wars, but in the latest, current round, is taking a more sophisticated approach to the fight.

This fighting strategy has evolved in the past few years partly as a response to prize-fighter Israel’s success in winning the Palestinian War of 2000. For years, the Palestinians succeeded in penetrating Israel and committing atrocities against Israeli civilians, inflicting severe emotional and physical blows against their opponent. However, their opponent is a middleweight and they’re lightweights. Israel wore them down with efficacious punches that became harder and harder to counter. It evacuated Gaza, leaving that strip of land without a connection to the West Bank, forcing the Palestinians to fight with two uncoordinated arms. It parried punches with stronger punches, stopping most of the terror attacks through intensive intelligence gathering, using targeted killings, developing defensive strategies such as the security barrier and large increases in the number of check-points, and decreases in the number of Palestinians permitted to travel into Israel to work. While doing these things, Israel also kept pushing the Palestinians into a smaller and tighter corner. With Gaza gone, additional territory in the rink was being overwhelmed by Israel as it grew settlements in Judea and Samaria/West Bank and built out parts of Jerusalem. To fortify their claims, the over-confident Israelis kept pointing to their increasing activities such as archaeological digs to point out that the ring should be theirs because of the historic connection of early Jews to Jerusalem and Israel.

But the Israelis don’t know how to close a fight, and when they had the Palestinians down for the count, they stepped back and offered peace. They did this in 2000, 2001 and 2008. Every time, the Palestinians refused to accept a truce and stepped right back into the fight, even more fiercely than before. Even after the pain of fighting a losing war in the Palestinian War of 2000, faced with extensive body blows and reeling from the loss of their charismatic promoter, Yasser Arafat, the Palestinians did not bow down or give up – after all, this fight is in an inescapable iron cage and since the UN ref won’t let either side kill off the other, the fight must go on, blow after bloody blow.

It took a few years, but the solution came in the form of a new trainer, Salam Fayyad, a western-trained economist who worked in the highest echelons of international finance. Fayyad understands that the crowd which matters here is the West and they can influence the ref to give advantages to the Palestinians. Fayyad and his boss, Mahmoud Abbas who had once written a doctoral dissertation denying parts of the Holocaust, understood well that fighting a bigger, stronger fighter with brutality would only lead to greater injury and a possible loss. No, that was not the way to win an uneven fight. The only way to beat a stronger opponent is to make him work harder, make him work non-stop, tire him out, weaken him with painful and confusing jabs to the side and wait until he is too fatigued to resist. Time will do the rest.

So the Palestinians went into the rope-a-dope.

Instead of terrorism, the Palestinians began to demonstrate using civilians at B’ilin; instead of loud proclamations in the Arab media, they wooed European and North American activists to proclaim for them that Israel was an unjust state; instead of fighting fire with fire, they fought fire with fake media demonstrations like Muhammad al-Dura and the bomb that killed the family on the beach in Gaza; instead of calling Israel names, they let their shills from the Left (especially sympathetic Jews and university activism) vilify Israel in the most heinous terms (genocide; apartheid), and of course they counted on the confusion their elusive rope-a-dope strategy was sowing upon their opponent.

Their lumbering opponent, unable to see that the underdog’s strategy had changed and was now making use of their smaller size and sympathetic crowd to form a dangerous advantage, kept acting with unsophisticated brutishness. it kept pushing the settlements, watched its economy grow and its society become more entrenched even in areas that it knew it may not be able to keep, it announced a law that made it look bigoted because it prevented Palestinian Arabs from moving into Israel and bulldozed buildings under judgmental reporters’ watchful eyes. Whenever stung by jabs, Israel fought back with a barrage of heavy blows against Lebanon and Gaza, proving that a media victory can overwhelm a military victory.

Winning few points against the elusive smaller fighter who kept bouncing against the ropes, the lumbering middleweight began to feel tired and to question his own motives and tactics. And that’s the moment in which we find ourselves now: the moment when the smaller fighter against the ropes senses the weakness and fatigue of the larger fighter and comes out of the ropes quickly and aggressively to fight in the hope that time has done its share and given the advantage to the less tired and extremely motivated underdog.

Over the past few weeks, the Palestinians have come out of the ropes with threats that they won’t even discuss peace unless Israel treats not just the settlements as illegal by stopping all construction there but also give the same status to Jerusalem. The US, a fight enthusiast that had been trying to support both sides even as it kept sending messages of support to Israel’s corner, immediately supported this idea.

The Palestinians followed that jab with a second jab to the other side by announcing that their leader, Abbas, would resign, throwing the ref and the crowd into a tizzy since Abbas is believed to be a “moderate” and the only one on the Palestinian side with enough heft to deliver peace.

After these couple of jabs, the Palestinians followed with a strong right hook, allowing leaks to Ha’aretz and other reporters that Fayyad was planning to unilaterally announce a state on the 1967/1949 Armistice lines. The Israelis, tired and hurt, began to lobby the Americans, the Europeans and even the ref hard to stop this from happening. Feinting to the right, the Palestinians announced that Abbas was not in favor of Fayyad’s action. Somewhat relieved, the Israelis went to Washington to meet with the American President, who treated them as if they were from the enemy’s gym, not as their supporter and mentor. In fact, he apparently informed the Israelis that he was now supporting the Palestinian fighter unless the Israeli fighter backed off with his heavy-handedness.

Israel got the message. Bloodied, hurt and surprised by the new-found strength and crowd-support the other fighter was bringing to the fight, the Israelis lowered their defenses a little and announced a settlement freeze. Sensing weakness, the Palestinians lured in the Israelis with a light punch as Saeb Erakat announced that even the announcement to stop settlement building wouldn’t open the door the crowd demanded to talk peace. Duped, the Israelis felt they had gotten out of trouble and already began to make crowing noises about how they had put the ball in the Palestinians’ court and the Palestinians were the ones refusing to play. The Palestinians ignored this entirely. They had the Israelis right where they wanted them.

POW!! Uppercut!

That was today’s announcement that they will seek to have the ref change the rules by which the fight had been fought to their advantage. They are asking the UN to relinquish UNSCR 242 and 338 by replacing them with a new resolution that grants the Palestinians the West Bank/Judea and Samaria as well as the eastern part of Jerusalem before the next round begins. It’s official.

UNSCR 242 demands that before any peace deal is achieved and any land is given up – and specifying that not ALL the land is to be given up – peace and acceptance of all states in the region, including Israel, must be achieved. Suddenly these rules are to be changed and if they are, the price is not the West Bank/Judea and Samaria, it is Jerusalem itself. The holy part of Jerusalem.

Lo and behold, it appears the Palestinian wooing of the crowd in previous rounds as well as Israel’s perceived brutishness, mixed in with unfair singling out of this fighter because he wears a star of David on his shorts, have solidified the crowd’s support for the move and the ref will have no less than the EU supporting this move. He might even have the US’s support.

Do the Palestinians think this is the end? Heck, no. They think this is the beginning of the endgame; a final round of this fight that will last the next several years. Victory for them will be when Israel is no longer even fighting in the ring but is subjugated to their control. To accomplish this, whether they get the UN Security Council to accept the changes to 242 or not, just by having the General Assembly record these new rules and then kicking it into the Security Council, which has authority to create international law, they know that the pressure on Israel to succumb will be great, and they also know they will have the moral backing of the world as they continue to lash out at the weakened prize-fighter in front of them. After all, it will now be their land, as promised by the UN, that they will be “defending.”

Can Israel get out of this predicament? Yes. It will be tough, and I doubt that any of Israel’s current leaders in the government and the opposition have shown they have the acumen to do it, but some well aimed moves at their opponent can put Israel back in control of the fight. Sadly, if they don’t do these things soon, there is a very good chance we will see another war soon. A real war this time, where the Arabs bring the war into Israel itself.

Why did Nefesh B’Nefesh, an organization dedicated to bringing Jews to Israel on Aliyah and organizing bloggers conferences, organize a Flash Mob in downtown (as it were) Jerusalem last Friday? Was it in celebration of Hanukah? Must be because the mob danced to frequent Jewlicious Festival participant Smooth E’s Hanukkah Hey Ya. Others noted that perhaps Nefesh B’Nefesh was in fact making a political statement what with the mixed egalitarian dancing and all. Whatever. It was fun. Get over yourselves.

From the JTA: Woman wearing tallit arrested at Western Wall

From the JPost: Woman wearing talit at Kotel detained

From Haaretz: Police arrest woman for wearing prayer shawl at Western Wall

From ArutzSheva: Police Arrest, Release Woman with Prayer Shawl at Kotel.

In fact the articles are completely different — JPost says a woman was detained after trying to read from a Torah near the Kotel. The JTA, that she was arrested for wearing a Tallit.

The prayer shawl was not the reason she was detained. She was not arrested, obviously, because she was immediately released. I am not judging what should happen there — I advocate some kind of compromise — I am judging the sensational headlines, and the damage they do to the Jewish people, by our own news sources.

Forget the whole CNN vs FOX vs MSNBC debate. We have our own headline battles, though more subtle.

The woman detained was interviewed by the Jpost:

Frenkel said that as the women unrolled the Torah scroll and began to prepare to read, officials from the Kotel Foundation arrived and demanded that they leave the premises.

Frenkel said that the women agreed to roll up the Torah scroll and take it to the Robinsons Arch. But on their way out Frenkel, who was wearing a talit and was carrying the Torah, was seized by police.

I was pushed into a nearby police station and transferred to the main police station at Yaffo Gate, she said.

About 40 women who attended the prayer formed a procession and followed the police and Frenkel through the Old City to the Yaffo Gate where they congregated and sang songs until Frenkel was released.

The Jewish headlines are helping to divide an already divided people desperate for some kind of unity to face external threats.

If you are anything like me, you hate pretty much all Israeli t-shirt designs that you see at Shuk HaKarmel.   I think the one I hate the most is

No direct object or adverb to say HOW Uzi does it! Or whom he does it to.

Don’t worry.  Benji Lovitt, from What War Zone,   is remedying the situation by selling his own wittily-captioned t-shirts based on some content from his blog and Israeli life in general, which you can buy here and which are wittier than anything currently available on Ben Yehuda.  I should take this opportunity to mention that Benji is my favorite Israeli comedian, aside from Avigdor Lieberman.

My favorite shirt is this one :

Yihyeh B'seder, Bernie Madoff! (no, it doesn't actually say Bernie Madoff. Just implied.)

But he has a bunch of great shirts available, so check them out and support!

]]> http://www.jewlicious.com/2009/11/chumus-larious-t-shirts-from-benji-lovitt/feed/ 0 http://www.jewlicious.com/2009/11/the-palestinian-endgame-enters-high-gear/ http://www.jewlicious.com/2009/11/the-palestinian-endgame-enters-high-gear/#comments Sun, 08 Nov 2009 05:47:44 +0000 themiddle http://www.jewlicious.com/?p=11377

I was going to call this piece “Abbas Plays Poker” but then Khaled Abu Toameh wrote a piece in the J Post called Abbas’s Big Bluff in which he argues that Abbas has called for Palestinian elections now with the knowledge that Hamas won’t participate. Khaled doesn’t quite make the point that this is a way for Abbas to stay in power, but that’s exactly what it is.

That touches on the big bluff. The bluff is not the one directed at Hamas, but the one directed at the international community and especially the Obama administration. For years and years American foreign policy has been built around the premise that there is a Palestinian partner for peace. After Arafat died and Abbas became the new leader of the Palestinians, the word came out from American diplomatic circles and parroted by the media, that Mahmoud Abbas was a moderate and sympathetic to the West.

Well, Abbas has now told the world that he is planning to quit. He is so darned frustrated with the non-progress of the peace talks, and especially with the Americans’ inability to “freeze” all Israeli building activity not only in the West Bank/Judea and Samaria, but also in east Jerusalem. He’s had enough of this and now he’s going to leave. Unspoken in the threat is that there isn’t anybody else who is “moderate” and of a leadership capacity to replace him. Salam Fayyad, for example, the current PM of the Palestinians is considered capable, but a technocrat who is not particularly beloved among the Palestinians. Others like the young guard, Dahlan and Barghouti are either not ripe yet or in prison. Abbas is the only known quantity and since the conventional wisdom places him as a moderate, losing him would spell the end of the known and entry into the unknown. Chaos is sure to follow, is the assumption among many diplomats in the West.

Let’s call this Bluff #1.

At the same time this news is coming from the Palestinian leader, there is now a news-leak published today in Ha’aretz, that Salam Fayyad’s decision to create the infrastructure of a state may have actually received such a warm reception in the West, that not only EU countries are receptive to taking the next step and actually permitting the declaration of a Palestinian state but even the Obama administration has secretly consented to support the creation of such a state.

The plan specifies that at the end of a designated period for bolstering national institutions the PA, in conjunction with the Arab League, would file a “claim of sovereignty” to the UN Security Council and General Assembly over the borders of June 4, 1967 (before the outbreak of the Six-Day War, during which Israel took control of the West Bank and Gaza).

Fayyad is also seeking a new Security Council resolution to replace Resolutions 242 and 338 in the hope of winning the international community’s support for the borders of a Palestinian state and applying stronger pressure on Israel to withdraw from the West Bank.

Let’s call this Bluff #2.

A good set of bluffs deserves a third bluff that isn’t of the same order, but helps to define the critical importance of the key bluffs it is supporting. Let’s call it Bluff #3:

Following Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas’ announcement that he would not run for another term, a senior Fatah official told Ynet that if serious progress was not made soon in peace talks, the organization would consider reverting to popular warfare.

The source said Saturday that more and more Fatah operatives were calling for a return to violent resistance.

“We are not talking about terror attacks and weapons, but we are talking about protests and (throwing) stones, like the anti-fence protests, and about strikes and protests by the people, so that the world understands that the next step will be unpleasant and we go back to the way things were before Oslo.”

Wanna bet that senior official is Saeb Erakat?

UPDATE: The day after this post was written, it was reported that Abbas was threatening to dissolve the Palestinian Authority and declare the peace process dead. Bluff #3a, anybody?

Okay, back to my first post about the Palestinian endgame – wherein I propose that in this upcoming period which is supposed to last several years has the Palestinians entering a new stage in their war against Israel, one where they continue to delay a peace deal until they end up with a world that supports a single state solution. In the discussion that followed, I was asked why Fayyad would propose a state if I was right. My response was that it’s a win-win threat to make. It scares the Israelis and may get them to make additional concessions to avoid this outcome, and if it doesn’t scare the Israelis and somehow a Palestinian state comes into being, the manner of its coming into being will ensure that they can proceed to demand the rest of Israel. The process of seeking to make Israel into part of Palestine continues in one way or another.

Well, here we are and things are moving apace, certainly faster than I predicted. Let’s review:

**Across the world, Palestinian groups are teaming up with scholars, unions and other leftists to push hard on an academic, cultural and economic boycott movement. They are garnering minor successes, some failures as well but mostly a ton of publicity much of which depicts Israel in hideous terms.

**The same groups have come to use the language of apartheid to attack Israel.

**These groups are parading Jewish sympathizers as the face of their movements.

**The Sixth Fatah Congress voted not to come to peace with Israel unless all of Jerusalem is Palestinian. In the same Congress they voted to keep refugee camps open for propaganda purposes, they voted to incorporate into Fatah one of the most violent groups in the West Bank/Judea and Samaria and they voted to continue to push against Israel internationally using the apartheid model. They also informed the world through statements by people like Dahlan that contrary to previous Palestinian claims, the Fatah charter had never been changed to remove the paragraphs calling for elimination of Israel and denying the Jewish connection to Israel.

**Throughout the years during which Arafat and then Abbas ruled over the Palestinian Authority, the hysterical Israel bashing in the schools and Palestinian media has continued unabated.

**There has been no positive response to any Israeli actions towards the Palestinians. For example, about 25% of checkpoints have been removed, an entire PA army has been subsidized and armed and Israel protected the PA government from Hamas in Judea and Samaria/West Bank. The rhetoric against Israel remained aggressive and negative.

**Last year, Mahmoud Abbas said “no” to an offer of peace and a state by Israel that included the Taba Plan based on the Clinton Parameters and additionally addressed the complex problem of coming to a settlement on Jerusalem by offering to internationalize it.

**Abbas came up with a new demand once Netanyahu came into power: no negotiations until total settlement freeze. A few months earlier he rejected a generous offer by Olmert. An aide to Abbas told the Washington Post that the delay was intended to bring down Netanyahu’s government within two years. The apparent basis for this thinking is that Obama will not stand for an Israeli government that isn’t offering peace.

**Abbas has now announced that he is tired of the games and since Israel won’t play along with him, he is not running in the Palestinian election he called for January.

**A warning trial balloon is floating higher and higher now with the claim that the Palestinians will not only declare a state, but will get the UN Security Council to vote for acceptance on such a state that includes all of east Jerusalem, 1949 armistice lines and superseding UNSC resolutions 242 and 338 which effectively means that all of the West Bank/Judea and Samaria up to the Green Line becomes the new Palestine.

Whew.

Well, the bluffs here are as follows: #3, returning to low ebb civilian violence against Israel; #2 declaring a Palestinian state; #1 Abbas going away.

#3 may happen, but is unlikely to happen because the Palestinian economy is doing well right now and people are tired of the fight. They’ll get some good demonstrations in there, but a full-blown society-wide civil insurrection seems highly unlikely. The Palestinians also need to be careful not to start using suicide bombings again because it worked against them last time.

#2 may happen, but everybody must know that there is absolutely no way that Israel would ever again leave the Western Wall or the Temple Mount. Since the trial balloon floated here provides the Palestinians with everything the Jordanians and Egyptians held in 1949, including the Temple Mount and the Jewish Quarter in Jerusalem, there is no way Israel would ever permit this to happen. In other words, the world would be signing off on an interminable war. I doubt that any serious thinking western diplomat would ever let their governments go that route.

#1 Abbas wants sympathy and to achieve this he is striving to look like the underdog while underscoring how important he is to the peace process. He wants to be courted back to the dance by the powers out there because it gives him further leverage in any future peace discussions. It’s called playing hard to get.

It is plain to see that the Abbas/Fayyad duo are a pair of shrewd operators. Despite the heartwarming calls of “moderates” by European and American diplomats, however, the entire panoply of Palestinian activities over the past several years points to a different type of campaign against Israel. This time they are using supposed moderate stances in public while ensuring that their anti-Israel activities abroad and with their own population become more robust.

What is most worrisome is that they appear to be following the “stages” plan in which the idea is to move forward against Israel in stages, as circumstances permit, using every new stage as the starting point of a new cycle of doing whatever needs to be done to get to the next stage. The ultimate goal has not changed and that’s the destruction of Israel as a Jewish state in favor of an Arab-led Palestinian state.

So I say, let Abbas go. Drop him like a hot potato. So much for bluff #1.

Tell Fayyad that Jerusalem will have to be negotiated in good faith because even if a unilateral declaration of Palestinian statehood takes place, or especially if one takes place, then there won’t be any chance of a settlement, just a war. So much for bluff #2.

Low-ebb intifadahs are not an existential threat to Israel. Violence will rebound against the Palestinians. So much for bluff #3.

Finally, tell Israelis not to panic. Ignore the bluffing. Get Iron Dome and other anti-missile systems into place; continue to build the neighborhoods ringing Jerusalem but keep the upper hand by stopping contruction in Judea and Samaria/West Bank anywhere outside of the 3% envelope near the Green Line offered by Barak at Taba; put on a diplomatic counter-offensive informing the western powers that the red line is the Jewish part of east Jerusalem – a red line that leads to inevitable war.

Then, offer the Taba plan to the Palestinians again. Do it publicly and loudly.

Repeat this loud offer of peace and a Palestinian state every time somebody complains there isn’t peace. Because there could be peace tomorrow…if the Palestinians would stop believing and being led to believe by naive American administrations and pro-Arab European diplomats that their endgame will lead to either 1949 armistice lines with the right to pursue the rest of Israel, or a single state from the river to the sea.

UPDATE: Two days following this post, it was publicized that Abbas was angry at Fayyad for proposing a two state solution to world leaders as the Ha’aretz article reported. Fayyad’s office sent a denial to the media, claiming that no secret arrangements had been made with world leaders about a two state solution. Bluff? Truth? Delaying tactic?

Follow up: More About the Palestinian Endgame, where I include evidence about Palestinian intentions from Fayyad’s own two year plan…

Tomorrow evening, just before sunset, Jerusalem will be the site of what may very well be a very momentous occasion – Rabbi Sharon Brous’ Los Angeles Ikar Congregation is opening a little annex here in Jerusalem. Sort of.

Rabbi Brous, who got her smichah from the Jewish Theological Seminary, was listed (what? 3 times?) in the Forward 50 as well as in Newsweek’s 50 most Influential Rabbis in the US list. Much of that buzz has to do with exuberant and meaningful nature of the traditional/egalitarian services that she runs at Ikar.

Anyhow, called B’nei Ikar, and run out of someone’s house with a potluck afterwards, I have no idea whether this thing, oh here’s the facebook link, is even official. But still. If this gets big (they have 14 confirmed guests so far) then maybe more of these folks will stay in Israel. People always complain about the role of Orthodox Judaism in Israeli political life, and how it shuts out other streams of Judaism, and my response is “get more people who think like you to move here and have babies.” Now there’s another reason for them to do so! Shabat Shalom Angelenos! Hope you’ll stay a while!