Wow. From whatever shithole bunker, buried deep in the ground, he’s hiding in, Hassan Nasrallah is not going to be happy today. Israel captured the Francop, an Antigua registered cargo ship on it’s way to Syria with a special cargo of 36 containers, weighing in at 500 tons, on it’s way to Hezballah in South Lebanon. Once inside the containers, the IDF found 106 mm rockets, 107 mm rockets, 122 mm rockets, mortar shells and hand grenades. These munitions, hidden in polyurethane, were surely destined to be used against civilians in Northern Israel and represent a violation of UN General Assembly Resolutions 1747 and 1701. Just to put it into context, remember the Karine-A? Another boat full of Iranian supplied weapons captured by the Israelis before terrorists could get their hands on it? That was a big deal back in 2002, right? The Francop had 10 times more weapons. In fact, the Israelis are still opening up the containers!

The crazy thing is, this is just one they caught. The IDF really has no way of knowing how many weapons have gotten through. Shit.

Imagine that you are 18 years old. You have just completed high school and in a few months you will enter the army. In the meantime, you spend your time going out with friends and working to save some money – like any other typical teenager in Israel.

One afternoon, you come home exhausted from work and collapse into bed for a nap. Suddenly, in the middle of your nap you find yourself waking up to the sound of glass shattering – all over your back.

It takes you a moment to realize that the window above your bed has exploded and that shards of glass lie everywhere. Your dad comes racing in, picks you up and carries you outside to safety.

Welcome to a moment in the life of Ilan Dahan, a Sderot 18-year-old who slept through the siren warning of the impending Kassam, only to wake up to the rocket explosion in his backyard on Tuesday evening, May 19.

“It’s a miracle that all I got was this scratch,” Ilan says, dazedly pointing to a red mark on his back, where a piece of glass cut through.

Ilan’s family stands around in shock. His mother Shula looks at her son tearfully. “I never expected this to happen to us during the ceasefire,” she says.

The back of the Dahan’s home is covered in debris and glass, while rocket shrapnel marks the walls and ceiling of the home. An evening breeze blows through the windowless windows. Ilan’s father, Avi, stands by his son. “I was terrified that something had happened to him,” Avi says in a quiet voice.

Now imagine that, after such a rocket attack, the kind of therapy needed to get shock victims back on track is no longer available. Due to significant budget cuts, trauma therapy facilities in Sderot, which have played a valuable role in rehabilitating residents of the rocket-torn community, are now in danger of closing down. (more…)

Israeli Ground Troops Entering Gaza (AP)

The night of Saturday, 3 January 2009, Israeli ground troops entered Gaza. Since then, they have killed over 50 Palestinian gunmen, destroyed what was reported to be Hamas’ military headquarters, multiple tunnels in the Philadelphi corridor, a mosque which had been used to store and fire rockets, and several other targets. Approximately 500 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza since the beginning of the Operation. Over 400 of these were Hamasmen. With a force of approximately 1000 men, this means that Hamas lost approximately 40% of its force – a dire loss for any military apparatus. The IDF is moving to encircle the densely populated Gaza City, where Hamas has concentrated (or hidden) the bulk of its forces. The IDF has explained that this phase of the Operation, that of the employment of ground forces, is to function as a “root canal” against terrorism.

Why was the ground necessary? On the small scale, it is to stop rocket fire. How do you stop rockets from being fired? Destroy the rockets. For our purposes, rockets can be broken down into two subgroups: short and long range. Long range rockets can be destroyed by bombing, such as by an aerial assault. These rockets are larger, require more fuel, and thus render themselves more susceptible to destruction by air strike. Short range rockets, however, are not so easily destroyed from the air. (As a side notes, short range includes those rockets which can reach Ashkelon). These rockets are shoulder launched, relatively small, easily fired, and, also, easily hidden. The only way to stop them from being fired is to control the territory from which they are being fired. This has proven true statistically in that 73% of the rockets fired on Israel over the last week were fired from areas which the IDF now controls, and from which rockets are, now, not being fired. [Note: this does not mean that Israel wants to annex or occupy Gaza. No one, not the Likud or anyone to the Left, wants to occupy Gaza and another 2.1 million Palestinians].

The real goal of the military campaign, however, is not a body count (i.e. of gunmen, rockets, munitions, etc). Rather, it is to deter the enemy from using those means which are in their possession
(i.e. the ones you haven’t managed to prevent them from acquiring). At present the goal is to break the taboo that Israel would not put troops on the ground. This taboo was believed by Hezbullah in 2006 and was believed by Hamas for the last few years. It is the essential problem with casus belli. If you fail to act after stating that a given assault would be seen as casus belli, then you risk looking like a paper tiger. This is what allowed Hamas to attack a country which it knows to be 100 times stronger than it. A lack of a red light is perceived as a de facto  green light. Without going into the reasons for which Gaza began to launch missiles into Israel quite heavily over the last 6 months (which includes an attempt to renegotiate the ceasefire terms in their favor, including the opening of the “border crossings”), it is evident that Hamas did not actually believe that Israel would attack them back, and certainly not with a ground incursion. The Operation will likely result in a ceasefire. The ceasefire will, in all likelihood, be broken in another year, 2 years tops, at which point there will have to be another, stronger, ground incursion. However, if Israel responds well, as in with a crushing force, there will not likely be a third time, or if so, it will be far smaller than the second time. Deterrence is built over time. We cannot convince these people to recognize Israel’s right to exist, nor can we convert them to Zionists. However, we can convince them that it is not in their interest to continue attacking Israel. [In deterrence literature, the parallel chosen is that of the school yard bully. You may not be able to convince him that it is wrong for him to steal your lunch money, nor can you make him like you, butif you punch him in the nose enough times and stand up for yourself, you can convince him that its not worth it for him to mess with you]. Let us hope that Israel continues to do well during this second part of Operation Cast Lead, and not withdraw too soon.

כל הכבוד לצה”ל

Soldiers Putting Up an Israeli Flag in a Staging Area near Gaza. (AP)

Operation Cast Lead seems to be going well, so far. Over 325 targets have been bombed, and over 360 Palestinians killed (almost completely Hamas-people. Some human rights estimates place the number of civilian casualties as low as 45). Police Headquarters, Hamas safe-houses, munitions stores, rocket launchpads, prisons, a Hamas-run mosque, grad trucks, smuggling tunnels, et al, have been hit. The death toll on the Israeli side has been low, considering the number of rockets being lobed into Israel (80 just on Monday), with only 4 dead, (2 of whom were Israeli Arabs, proving that Hamas’ rockets do not distinguish between Jews and non-Jews), and 2 wounded. Israel reports that it is readying to send in ground troops (though this will undoubtedly increase our death toll). On Hamas’ end, things are not so clear.

Iranian clerics and Hezbullah’s Nasrallah call for a third Palestinian Intifada and that Muslims throughout the world rise up against their governments, mentioning Egypt in particular, in order to support the Palestinians, whom they have deemed to be the most “noble” of people. Egypt’s Foreign Minister, Ahmet Aboul Gheit, however, has slammed Nasrallah for such statements, saying that Nasrallah’s comments are as good as a declaration of war on Egypt, and that Nasrallah just wants there to be as much chaos in Egypt and other countries as exists in his [Nasrallah's] own country. In addition, Aboul Geit, while condemning Israel’s actions, places the blame squarely on Hamas for firing rockets and/or allowing rockets to be fired into Israel. Egypt’s President Mubarak has, also, issued a statement refusing to open the Rafah crossing with Gaza unless Abu Mazen (Mahmoud Abbas) is in charge there. (Egypt does not need more Islamistspouring into its country, and unlike Israel, does not conduct itself while on the one hand running a military campaign and on the other letting in aid professionals due to concerns for civilians). Egypt and Turkey are working to broker a peace deal, or more accurately, a form of ceasefire. Showing concern over Hezbullah’s posturing, Egypt has warned Israel that a ground incursion into Gaza will likely result in the opening of a Northern front, with Hezbullah attacking Israel. Nasrallah, however, has made no mention of a possible attack on Israel. Nonetheless, it would be foolhardy for Israel not to be prepared for such a surprise attack, and thus, the North of the country, particularly in Kiryat Shmona, is preparing for the possible outbreak of war.
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IAF Strike on Gaza

The morning of Saturday, December 27, Israel launched an offensive on Gaza. The Israeli Air Force struck 40 sites simultaneously, and a total of 170 sites. The attack was a surprise, according to Hamas sources. Hamas claims that all police headquarters have been destroyed, and the Gazan Chief of Police Tawfik Jaber has been killed. Expecting an Israeli attack to be similar in nature to past ones, Hamas lost much of its infrastructure. 195 Palestinians, mostly Hamasmen, have been killed. Though, recent media reports place the death toll as high as 225. In retaliation, Hamas has fired over 80 rockets into southern Israel, hitting Ashkelon and Netivot, where an Israeli citizen was killed. The IDF is mobilizing tanks to be prepare for the event of a ground incursion, and stationing combat units around the “borders” of Gaza to prevent a potential attack on Israel. Minister of Defense,Ehud Barack has said that, “Our purpose is to hit Hamas in such a way that will force it to halt any firing and other hostile activities against Israeli citizens and against the IDF.” This task will be made more difficult in that, according to Hamas spokesman, Fawzi Barhoum, Hamas is prepared and “will continue the resistance until the last drop of blood.” In addition, Hamas official Khalid Mashaal has called on Palestinians to start a “third intifada.”

Israeli security strategy is based on a concept known in Hebrew as hachra’ah. While there is no direct translation into English, the closest concept would be that of a decisive victory. The point is to show your enemy that you are so strong that you can absolutely destroy them, should you so choose. This should deter the enemy from continuing its course of action and prevent future wars or attacks against you. It is essential that Israel show that it is strong, in order to prevent further attacks.

For years now, Hamas and the PIJ (the Palestinian Islamic Jihad) have been firing rockets on Israel with no real military threat against them. When checkpoints or de facto “border-crossings” were blocked, Hamas continued with its activities, winning over the hearts and minds of its populace, who do not realize that Hamas’ activities are the cause of their suffering. Israel has made itself look weak in the eyes of its enemies by allowing rocketfire to go unchecked, and thus Hamas has continued with its actions. However, the implications of this operation, “Operation Cast Lead,” go far beyond Gaza. It is crucial that all of Israel’s potential enemies view Israel as strong, so as to deter all those wish to wipe Israel off the map. These enemies grow stronger by the day, including Iran and its satellite organizations (though this is a different discussion, perhaps better suited for a separate blog). As a result, it is crucial that Israel fully complete this operation, and not leave it “half done.” This will be made more difficult by the fact Gaza is very crowded, giving little room for movement. In addition, Hamas has had time to prepare for an incursion; they will have studied Israel’s performance in its last war, and will know its weaknesses. While they will be, clearly, weakened by the loss of personnel and valuable munitions and weaponry, the IDF should still expect a considerable amount of fighting, particularly in light of Hamas’ dedication to their cause, and their willingness to sacrifice their lives in the name of Allah and jihad. (Note: I am not claiming that there is a lack of logic in such actions. Rather, I believe that these individuals will act very rationally. It is simply a question of to what rationale or logic they hold. Clearly, theirs is rather different from ours). In short, Israel will have great difficulty in completing its tasks with regards to the Gaza Strip. Yet, it is crucial, for Israeli national security, that Israel show a considerable display of strength, force, and reach a quick and decisive victory.

A Palestinian rocket exploded right outside a Sderot supermarket on Wednesday evening, December 17, in one of the worst Qassam attacks on Sderot since the ceasefire began. Rocket shrapnel lightly wounded three people, with one man suffering a light head wound, according to a MADA spokesperson on scene.

Fire trucks and ambulances lined outside the supermarket as shattered glass littered the entire area. Nine people including three young women were evacuated to Barzilai hospital in Ashkelon for severe shock.

The Qassam rocket caused heavy damage to at least 15 cars in the parking lot where it had exploded. The smell of serious gas leaks had Sderot firemen hosing the entire parking lot with water in order to prevent any fire.

Inside the supermarket, known as Victory, wine bottles lay shattered upon the floor, as shoppers made their way outside across puddles of wine and broken glass. Rocket shrapnel caused heavy damage to store merchandise, as the glass windows in the supermarket’s front entrance completely shattered.

A worker at Steimetsky Book Store across the street from the supermarket told Sderot Media Center, that she and her co-worker watched the Qassam rocket drop into the parking lot, about five meters away from the supermarket. “We saw the sparks and the smoke, and watched the rocket explode on impact. It was one of the most terrifying sights, I’ve ever seen,” said the worker, a student at Sapir College, who asked not to be named. (more…)

In a recent study conducted by NATAL (Israel Trauma Center for Victims of Terror and War), researchers discovered that close to 56% of Sderot residents have suffered in some way from Palestinian rocket attacks. According to the report, presented by Natal Community Staff Director, Dr. Roni Berger in Beersheva on November 24, nearly half of Sderot’s population has been either physically or emotionally damaged by Palestinian rocket fire.

Over 4, 000 Sderot residents are suffering from symptoms of post-traumatic-stress disorder (PTSD) while one third of Sderot children, ages 13 to 18, have trauma-related learning disorders.

PTSD is a severe and ongoing reaction to a terrifying ordeal that involved physical harm or the threat of physical harm to the person, according to the National Institute for Mental Health. People who develop PTSD may have witnessed a loved one who was harmed in a traumatic event or were victims themselves.

Symptoms of PTSD usually begin three months after the ordeal but can also emerge years afterward. Some people can recover within 6 months while others have symptoms that last for much longer. For some people, the condition becomes chronic.

“The initial symptoms of shock include an accelerated heart rate, dry mouth, limbs ‘falling asleep,’ a sense of fainting, seeming paralyzed or even emotionally detached,” says Gabi Schreiber chief of psychiatry at Ashkelon’s Barzilai hospital.

Dr. Adrianne Katz, head of the Sderot Mental Health Center says that the shock impacts the victim’s ability to function for months after the experiencing a Palestinian rocket explosion. “Many rocket terror victims suffer from depression, sleepless nights, severe anxiety, and have trouble going back to a regular routine,” she says. (more…)

Palestinian Rocket Destroys Sderot Home

It is the day where the Hamas-Israel ceasefire officially comes to an end and the question to whether Palestinian rocket fire will resume on Israelis civilians living in the south, will officially be answered.

The question has been answered–to some degree–a little earlier than expected. After Israel entered the Gaza Strip to blow up a Hamas dug tunnel intended for the killing or kidnapping of Israeli soldiers, Hamas fired a massive barrage of rockets-over 60–upon Israeli civilians through November 4-5.
Several more Palestinian rockets were fired at Israel throughout the past week, with a barrage of Qassam rockets fired at Sderot and the Eshkol region on Sunday, November 16 and Monday, November 17. The ceasefire to this effect has been violated, two and a half weeks into November, more than 80 times by Hamas with the firing of over 80 Qassam and mortar rockets at Israelis civilians living in the Negev.

Hamas’s Ceasefire Violations
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Something close to 140 rockets have been fired into the western Negev from Gaza over the past two weeks. Only yesterday, another 10 rockets were fired into Israel. Color Red Alerts (the rocket warning system in place in the southern communities located in the vicinity of the Gaza Strip) have been heard in multiple communities, including those of Ashdod, Sderot, and Sha’ar HaNegev (also referred to as Otef Aza). Hamas and the Al-Quds Brigadeof the Palestinian Islamic Jihad have, respectively, taken credit for various rocket launching.

It all started when the IDF discovered a tunnel linked with the Gaza Strip which could be used to smuggle supplies, weapons, and people into and out of the Gaza Strip. Should it be used to allow terrorists out of Gaza, this would be of great danger to Israeli security. In response to the destruction of the tunnel, rockets have been fired into Israel, which has warranted Israeli air strikes against the rocket launchers. Minister of Defense Ehud Barak has said, “No country can accept the consistent shelling of its citizens from a foreign entity. Israel won’t accept this. When conditions are ripe and there is a necessity to do so, we will act.” Perhaps this has led to the most recent incursion into Gaza this morning, in which Palestinian militants fired mortars at IDF tanks which briefly entered the Strip.

Technically the cease-fire is still in effect, as it has not yet been called off by either side. In case that the questions were not lacking prior to the beginning of the ceasefire, they ought to be asked now. It is clear that the ceasefire is simply giving Hamas and the other militant groups time to rearm and regroup. This being said, what is the purpose of the ceasefire. While most Israelis would like to have peace with their neighbors, and this, in fact, is a part of Israel’s Grand Strategy towards all of its neighbors (in particular, Gaza, the West Bank, Syria, and Lebanon), Israelis, in general, are split as to what is a reasonable cost. The Ehud Baraks of the Israeli government would like Israel’s Grand Strategy towards Gaza to be one which brings quiet for the short term. It does not matter for them if, in 5, 10, or ever 20, years time, Hamas will be more powerful than it ever was and in even less of a position to accept Israel’s existence. Thus, they will be willing to make whatever concessions are necessary in order to maintain this ceasefire. This being said, the objective ought not be quiet, but rather containment.

A terrorist organization uses force against a civilian population with a political motive. Allowing such an organization to grow stronger will not yield peace, nor will it yield tranquility in the long term (or even the short term, as the renewed rocket barrage ought to show). Jabotinsky argued that the only way to have peace with those who want to push you into the sea is to prove to them, beyond any measure of doubt, that you are going nowhere, and that you will not be pushed into the sea. He, as did the Talmud, also, argued against meeting those halfway, who have no wish to even take a baby step in your direction. A ceasefire, or defacto recognition of Hamas’ right to use acts of terror against Israel’s civilian population cannot result in peace. Rather, it will probably result if far more death and destruction than would direct confrontation.